German intel: Iran could have nuclear bomb in six months

July 16, 2009

German intel: Iran could have nuclear bomb in six months

Whether this happens in six months or six years, the inaction on the part of the international community (no, expressing concern and issuing deadlines doesn't count) only helps ensure it will happen.

"Iran could have atomic bomb within 6 months," from Reuters, July 15:
BERLIN - Germany’s BND foreign intelligence agency believes Iran is capable of producing and testing an atomic bomb within six months, much sooner than most analysts estimate, according to a report in German weekly Stern.

The report, which quotes BND experts, says the agency has information supporting the view that Iran has mastered the enrichment technology necessary to make a bomb and has enough centrifuges to make weaponised uranium.

“If they wanted to, they could detonate an atomic bomb in half a year’s time,” the story quoted a BND expert as saying.

The BND did not return two calls from Reuters seeking comment on the report.
Iran says its nuclear programme is for electricity generation to help it export more of its oil and gas, but Western countries suspect it of trying to pursue a nuclear bomb.
The U.N. Security Council has imposed three sets of sanctions on Tehran for defying its demands to suspend uranium enrichment.

Some analysts say Iran may be close to having the required material for producing a bomb, but most say the weaponisation process would then take one to two years due to technical and political hurdles.

“Weaponising” enrichment would not escape the notice of U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), unless it was done at a secret location.
Until now there have been no indications of any such covert diversion, a point made by the IAEA’s incoming director-general shortly after his election earlier this month.

Current IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has said it is his “gut feeling” that Iran is seeking at least the capability to build nuclear weapons, in order to protect itself from perceived regional and U.S. threats.

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Iran could have atomic bomb within 6 months
(Reuters)

15 July 2009
BERLIN - Germany’s BND foreign intelligence agency believes Iran is capable of producing and testing an atomic bomb within six months, much sooner than most analysts estimate, according to a report in German weekly Stern.


The report, which quotes BND experts, says the agency has information supporting the view that Iran has mastered the enrichment technology necessary to make a bomb and has enough centrifuges to make weaponised uranium.

“If they wanted to, they could detonate an atomic bomb in half a year’s time,” the story quoted a BND expert as saying.

The BND did not return two calls from Reuters seeking comment on the report.

Iran says its nuclear programme is for electricity generation to help it export more of its oil and gas, but Western countries suspect it of trying to pursue a nuclear bomb.

The U.N. Security Council has imposed three sets of sanctions on Tehran for defying its demands to suspend uranium enrichment.

Some analysts say Iran may be close to having the required material for producing a bomb, but most say the weaponisation process would then take one to two years due to technical and political hurdles.

“Weaponising” enrichment would not escape the notice of U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), unless it was done at a secret location.

Until now there have been no indications of any such covert diversion, a point made by the IAEA’s incoming director-general shortly after his election earlier this month.

Current IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has said it is his “gut feeling” that Iran is seeking at least the capability to build nuclear weapons, in order to protect itself from perceived regional and U.S. threats.

I don't think iran gonna have nuclear weapons in such a short span of time. It's nearly impossible for anyone to acquire nuclear weapons, who has not yet developed the stuff which is required to develop the nuclear weapon.

Overall, Iran is probably a little less than a decade away from developing a nuclear weapon. The key question here is how long it will take Iran to enrich a few tens of kilograms of uranium to more than 90 percent U-235.

Dafna Linzer reported that the US Intelligence Community does not believe that Iran could do so before “early to mid next decade”—a revision of previous assessments that Iran would “have the ability to produce nuclear weapons early in the next decade.”

Why so long? The answer is that Iran still has to build, install and operate its centrifuges to enrich uranium.